Top 10 undervalued fantasy RBs
Jamaal Charles leads list of backs falling too far in fantasy drafts
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
Running backs are always priced at a premium in fantasy football, but this year the severe depth disparity at that position has caused draft values to be thrown out of whack relative to where they should be -- it is leaving a lot of good deals on many draft boards.
This second part of a four-part series (the first can be found here) aims to assist fantasy owners in taking advantage of this by identifying some running backs who are being undervalued because of these market conditions.
[h=3]1. Jamaal Charles[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 7.7
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 6
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 3
It's true that the Chiefs' offense was terrible in a multitude of ways last year, but it wasn't because of Charles. According to my draft guide, he racked up a 9.3-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that gauges how productive a running back is when given good blocking (which is very roughly defined as when the offense doesn't allow the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). That mark ranked second only to Adrian Peterson (11.1 GBYPA) among running backs with at least 100 good blocking carries.
Kansas City's 47.6 percent good blocking rate (GBR) placed ninth in the league in that category, and could get even better with the addition of first-round pick Eric Fisher. Andy Reid may be a pass-first coach, but that should actually be a positive for Charles given his superb pass-catching abilities. The addition of Alex Smith at quarterback should be a big plus, as will having the elements of the pistol offense that Chris Ault will help to add. All in all, it looks like a perfect situation to vault Charles into the top three fantasy running backs this year, and yet he can be acquired with a mid-to-late first-round pick in most draft rooms.
<OFFER></OFFER>
[h=3]2. C.J. Spiller[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 9.9
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 7
TFS Positional rank: No. 6
Spiller's 9.1 GBYPA last year placed fourth among running backs with 100 or more good blocking rush attempts. To put this performance into perspective, note that Spiller's GBYPA was higher than the GBYPA totals posted by Marshawn Lynch (8.5) or Ray Rice (7.2), two backs who are currently being drafted ahead of Spiller. Any concerns that Spiller will split carries with Fred Jackson are lessened by the fact that Jackson is 32 years old and coming off an injury-shortened season where he posted a 6.0 GBYPA.
Spiller's 56 targets in the passing game last year ranked 14th among running backs and he was only four targets away from placing in top 10. Buffalo's run-blocking front wall led the league in GBR last year (52.2 percent) and returns most of its personnel, so Spiller should get ample opportunities to showcase his high RB1-caliber GBYPA. He's a first-round caliber back who can be had for a borderline second-round pick.
[h=3]3. Alfred Morris[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 11.4
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 9
TFS Positional rank: No. 7
Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan has scared off fantasy owners for years with his maddening running back usage, but last season he reminded the world that he will lean on a bell cow when given the chance. Morris' 351 rushes/targets were more than all but three backs -- Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson and Doug Martin -- and that workload didn't hurt his GBYPA (8.3, ranked 11th). Washington's run blocking was quite strong last season (48.4 percent GBR, ranked seventh) and may be even better this year as long as the unit stays healthy. There is little reason to think Morris' numbers should drop off from his No. 5 ranking in fantasy points and yet he is going off the board as an RB2 in some fantasy drafts.
[h=3]4. Frank Gore[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 11.4
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 14
TFS Positional rank: No. 11
A primary difference between a good running back and a great running back is that a great running back will continue to produce at a high level after reaching and surpassing the 1,500 career carry mark. Gore did that last year as he posted an 8.4-yard GBYPA mark that ranked sixth among ball carriers with at least 100 good blocking rush attempts.
There is some thought San Francisco won't use him as a bell cow this season, but that didn't hinder his fantasy value last year as he ranked 15th in rushes/targets (294) yet still ended up ranked 10th in fantasy points (190). This is a direct result of the 49ers' quality run blocking (49.0 percent GBR, ranked fourth) and that should be the case again this year. He's a borderline RB1 candidate who can be selected with a third-round pick in most draft rooms.
[h=3]5. Darren Sproles[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 45.7
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 21
TFS Positional rank: No. 16
There are pass-catching backs ... and then there is Sproles. His 104 targets last year easily led the league among running backs, and would have been enough to rank 32nd among wide receivers and fourth among tight ends. Sproles had more targets last year than Randall Cobb, James Jones, Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon or T.Y. Hilton, and his 75 receptions were more than Steve Smith posted.
Sproles may not get many rushing attempts (only 48 last year) but his 9.7 GBYPA shows there are few backs who can get more production out of that limited ground game workload. He is the type of back who can do as much with 150-200 rushes/targets as other backs can do with 200-250 rushes/targets and that talent gives him RB2 value in standard leagues and borderline RB1 value in PPR leagues.
[h=3]6. Reggie Bush[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 48.0
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 22
TFS Positional rank: No. 18
One of my recent articles illustrated a number of Bush's metric strengths. He is one of only 10 backs to post 250 or more rushes/targets in each of the past two seasons, did a very good job with the run blocking he was given and joins a team that is quite apt to use him as a receiver. His lack of goal-line carries isn't an impediment, given that he ranked 14th in running back fantasy points last year despite getting few attempts near the opponent's goal line. Add it all up and Bush is an RB2 candidate, yet he is currently being valued as an RB3 in drafts.
[h=3]7. Lamar Miller[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 62.8
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 25
TFS Positional rank: No. 21
Miller's 7.4 GBYPA last year was higher than the Dolphins' 6.8-yard team mark in that category, and shows that he convert blocks into yards better than most. Miller's history with the Miami Hurricanes (244 rushes/receptions in 2011) indicates he can handle a substantial workload. He should be able to hit the ground running as my draft guide says the Dolphins have four very favorable run defense matchups in the first seven weeks of the season. Miller also should benefit from strong blocking as the Dolphins' 51.6 percent GBR last year was the second highest in the league and should still stay strong even with Miami's offensive line personnel changes.
His fumble against the Dallas Cowboys in the preseason opener may account for the recent ADP drop-off (minus-3.2 percent over the past seven days) but, as noted by ESPN AFC East blogger James Walker, Miller actually made more good plays than bad ones in that contest.
[h=3]8. Johnathan Franklin[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 103.4
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 36
TFS Positional rank: No. 29
A May 2013 TFS ESPN Insider article detailed the many ways Franklin is actually a better prospect than teammate Eddie Lacy. Franklin bested Lacy in GBYPA (10.1 for Franklin, 9.4 for Lacy) despite playing behind a UCLA offensive line that wasn't as dominant as Alabama's. Franklin also had a higher yards per reception mark (9.79 for Franklin, 8.59 for Lacy) and that number would have been even greater if a 54-yard reception on a pass out of the backfield had been ruled a reception rather than lateral rush.
Franklin has zero durability question marks (he is the all-time rushing leader in UCLA history) and Scouts Inc. gave him a "1" grade (their best rating) in pass blocking. He should get as much playing time as the game situations will allow, and could be the most explosive RB3/RB4 in fantasy football this year.
[h=3]9. Daryl Richardson[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 128.4
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 44
TFS Positional rank: No. 36
Richardson fell two carries short of qualifying for the season-ending GBYPA metrics last season, which is a shame: His 9.5 GBYPA would have ranked fourth in the league in that category. He tallied 36 targets in part-time play, and that lends credence to the idea he could be a 50-60 target candidate. Richardson is currently listed as the No. 1 back on the Rams' depth chart, and given the issues that his competition for that spot are facing (Isaiah Pead's one-week suspension, Zac Stacy being a rookie), the chances of Richardson keeping this role look pretty good.
No back this year is likely to repeat Alfred Morris' feat of jumping from relative unknown to RB1 status in a single season, but Richardson has the best shot at making this fantasy performance leap.
[h=3]10. Bernard Pierce[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft ADP: 129.2
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 45
TFS Positional rank: No. 33
Ray Rice is getting close to the 1,500-carry mark in his career that serves as the historical point where most backs start to show some decline. Baltimore is the type of team that gets ahead of issues like this, and Pierce's 9.7 GBYPA mark last year (third best in the league) gives them a very viable alternative at the position. Going with a division of labor could maximize Rice's production while also getting Pierce prepped to eventually take over the starting role.
Baltimore's 48.0 percent GBR ranked eight best in the league, and was less than a percentage point away from ranking in the top five. Pierce is an RB5 who has at least RB4 -- and possibly RB3 -- potential and thus makes for one of the best later-round selections in a fantasy draft.
Jamaal Charles leads list of backs falling too far in fantasy drafts
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
Running backs are always priced at a premium in fantasy football, but this year the severe depth disparity at that position has caused draft values to be thrown out of whack relative to where they should be -- it is leaving a lot of good deals on many draft boards.
This second part of a four-part series (the first can be found here) aims to assist fantasy owners in taking advantage of this by identifying some running backs who are being undervalued because of these market conditions.
[h=3]1. Jamaal Charles[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 6
The Football Scientist (TFS) positional rank: No. 3
It's true that the Chiefs' offense was terrible in a multitude of ways last year, but it wasn't because of Charles. According to my draft guide, he racked up a 9.3-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that gauges how productive a running back is when given good blocking (which is very roughly defined as when the offense doesn't allow the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). That mark ranked second only to Adrian Peterson (11.1 GBYPA) among running backs with at least 100 good blocking carries.
Kansas City's 47.6 percent good blocking rate (GBR) placed ninth in the league in that category, and could get even better with the addition of first-round pick Eric Fisher. Andy Reid may be a pass-first coach, but that should actually be a positive for Charles given his superb pass-catching abilities. The addition of Alex Smith at quarterback should be a big plus, as will having the elements of the pistol offense that Chris Ault will help to add. All in all, it looks like a perfect situation to vault Charles into the top three fantasy running backs this year, and yet he can be acquired with a mid-to-late first-round pick in most draft rooms.
<OFFER></OFFER>
[h=3]2. C.J. Spiller[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 7
TFS Positional rank: No. 6
Spiller's 9.1 GBYPA last year placed fourth among running backs with 100 or more good blocking rush attempts. To put this performance into perspective, note that Spiller's GBYPA was higher than the GBYPA totals posted by Marshawn Lynch (8.5) or Ray Rice (7.2), two backs who are currently being drafted ahead of Spiller. Any concerns that Spiller will split carries with Fred Jackson are lessened by the fact that Jackson is 32 years old and coming off an injury-shortened season where he posted a 6.0 GBYPA.
Spiller's 56 targets in the passing game last year ranked 14th among running backs and he was only four targets away from placing in top 10. Buffalo's run-blocking front wall led the league in GBR last year (52.2 percent) and returns most of its personnel, so Spiller should get ample opportunities to showcase his high RB1-caliber GBYPA. He's a first-round caliber back who can be had for a borderline second-round pick.
[h=3]3. Alfred Morris[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 9
TFS Positional rank: No. 7
Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan has scared off fantasy owners for years with his maddening running back usage, but last season he reminded the world that he will lean on a bell cow when given the chance. Morris' 351 rushes/targets were more than all but three backs -- Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson and Doug Martin -- and that workload didn't hurt his GBYPA (8.3, ranked 11th). Washington's run blocking was quite strong last season (48.4 percent GBR, ranked seventh) and may be even better this year as long as the unit stays healthy. There is little reason to think Morris' numbers should drop off from his No. 5 ranking in fantasy points and yet he is going off the board as an RB2 in some fantasy drafts.
[h=3]4. Frank Gore[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 14
TFS Positional rank: No. 11
A primary difference between a good running back and a great running back is that a great running back will continue to produce at a high level after reaching and surpassing the 1,500 career carry mark. Gore did that last year as he posted an 8.4-yard GBYPA mark that ranked sixth among ball carriers with at least 100 good blocking rush attempts.
There is some thought San Francisco won't use him as a bell cow this season, but that didn't hinder his fantasy value last year as he ranked 15th in rushes/targets (294) yet still ended up ranked 10th in fantasy points (190). This is a direct result of the 49ers' quality run blocking (49.0 percent GBR, ranked fourth) and that should be the case again this year. He's a borderline RB1 candidate who can be selected with a third-round pick in most draft rooms.
[h=3]5. Darren Sproles[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 21
TFS Positional rank: No. 16
There are pass-catching backs ... and then there is Sproles. His 104 targets last year easily led the league among running backs, and would have been enough to rank 32nd among wide receivers and fourth among tight ends. Sproles had more targets last year than Randall Cobb, James Jones, Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon or T.Y. Hilton, and his 75 receptions were more than Steve Smith posted.
Sproles may not get many rushing attempts (only 48 last year) but his 9.7 GBYPA shows there are few backs who can get more production out of that limited ground game workload. He is the type of back who can do as much with 150-200 rushes/targets as other backs can do with 200-250 rushes/targets and that talent gives him RB2 value in standard leagues and borderline RB1 value in PPR leagues.
[h=3]6. Reggie Bush[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 22
TFS Positional rank: No. 18
One of my recent articles illustrated a number of Bush's metric strengths. He is one of only 10 backs to post 250 or more rushes/targets in each of the past two seasons, did a very good job with the run blocking he was given and joins a team that is quite apt to use him as a receiver. His lack of goal-line carries isn't an impediment, given that he ranked 14th in running back fantasy points last year despite getting few attempts near the opponent's goal line. Add it all up and Bush is an RB2 candidate, yet he is currently being valued as an RB3 in drafts.
[h=3]7. Lamar Miller[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 25
TFS Positional rank: No. 21
Miller's 7.4 GBYPA last year was higher than the Dolphins' 6.8-yard team mark in that category, and shows that he convert blocks into yards better than most. Miller's history with the Miami Hurricanes (244 rushes/receptions in 2011) indicates he can handle a substantial workload. He should be able to hit the ground running as my draft guide says the Dolphins have four very favorable run defense matchups in the first seven weeks of the season. Miller also should benefit from strong blocking as the Dolphins' 51.6 percent GBR last year was the second highest in the league and should still stay strong even with Miami's offensive line personnel changes.
His fumble against the Dallas Cowboys in the preseason opener may account for the recent ADP drop-off (minus-3.2 percent over the past seven days) but, as noted by ESPN AFC East blogger James Walker, Miller actually made more good plays than bad ones in that contest.
[h=3]8. Johnathan Franklin[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 36
TFS Positional rank: No. 29
A May 2013 TFS ESPN Insider article detailed the many ways Franklin is actually a better prospect than teammate Eddie Lacy. Franklin bested Lacy in GBYPA (10.1 for Franklin, 9.4 for Lacy) despite playing behind a UCLA offensive line that wasn't as dominant as Alabama's. Franklin also had a higher yards per reception mark (9.79 for Franklin, 8.59 for Lacy) and that number would have been even greater if a 54-yard reception on a pass out of the backfield had been ruled a reception rather than lateral rush.
Franklin has zero durability question marks (he is the all-time rushing leader in UCLA history) and Scouts Inc. gave him a "1" grade (their best rating) in pass blocking. He should get as much playing time as the game situations will allow, and could be the most explosive RB3/RB4 in fantasy football this year.
[h=3]9. Daryl Richardson[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 44
TFS Positional rank: No. 36
Richardson fell two carries short of qualifying for the season-ending GBYPA metrics last season, which is a shame: His 9.5 GBYPA would have ranked fourth in the league in that category. He tallied 36 targets in part-time play, and that lends credence to the idea he could be a 50-60 target candidate. Richardson is currently listed as the No. 1 back on the Rams' depth chart, and given the issues that his competition for that spot are facing (Isaiah Pead's one-week suspension, Zac Stacy being a rookie), the chances of Richardson keeping this role look pretty good.
No back this year is likely to repeat Alfred Morris' feat of jumping from relative unknown to RB1 status in a single season, but Richardson has the best shot at making this fantasy performance leap.
[h=3]10. Bernard Pierce[/h]
Current ESPN Live Draft positional rank: No. 45
TFS Positional rank: No. 33
Ray Rice is getting close to the 1,500-carry mark in his career that serves as the historical point where most backs start to show some decline. Baltimore is the type of team that gets ahead of issues like this, and Pierce's 9.7 GBYPA mark last year (third best in the league) gives them a very viable alternative at the position. Going with a division of labor could maximize Rice's production while also getting Pierce prepped to eventually take over the starting role.
Baltimore's 48.0 percent GBR ranked eight best in the league, and was less than a percentage point away from ranking in the top five. Pierce is an RB5 who has at least RB4 -- and possibly RB3 -- potential and thus makes for one of the best later-round selections in a fantasy draft.
